We know what schedule awaits Tennessee during the 2024 college football season, so how about a ranking of all 12 games from easiest to toughest?
Patrick Brown
Awaiting Tennessee during the 2024 college football season is the eighth-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Vols are looking to bounce back from a 9-4 season in 2023 to contend in the 16-team SEC and chase a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff in their fourth season under head coach Josh Heupel and his staff. We know the opponents awaiting Tennessee this fall – the start times for Chattanooga, NC State and Kent State are locked in, we’ll learn the kickoff windows for the rest of the slate on Tuesday – but what games will be the toughest for the Vols this season?
In three seasons under Heupel, Tennessee has been tough to beat at home, while the Vols have been more skittish and offered up some clunkers away from Neyland Stadium. Heupel’s teams have taken care of business in their easier non-conference games and also scored some quality wins against other Power 4 teams, most notably bowl victories over Clemson and Iowa and a 2022 road win at defending ACC champion Pittsburgh. The Vols are 8-8 against top-25 teams under Heupel, though six of those wins came during the breakthrough 2022 season.
As the slow summer months continue, GoVols247 ranks all 12 games on Tennessee’s 2024 schedule from easiest to toughest.
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12. Chattanooga (August 31 in Knoxville)
The Mocs went just 9-13 in the two seasons prior to hiring Rusty Wright as their head coach, and the former UTC tight end has done a good job in his five seasons at his alma mater. Chattanooga has finished as a top-25 team in the Football Championship Subdivision in each of the past two seasons and won an FCS Playoff game last season, knocking off Austin Peay before bowing out to Southern Conference rival Furman in the second round. The Mocs played Kentucky deep into the fourth quarter of a 28-23 loss in 2021 and likely would be competitive against some of the bottom-of-the-FBS opponents on Tennessee’s schedule for this season, but the Vols have had no issues in these games against FCS opponents.
11. Kent State (September 14 in Knoxville)
It should be a stress-free night for Tennessee in this game sandwiched by the early-season clashes against NC State in Charlotte and the SEC opener at league newcomer Oklahoma. (And hopefully the Golden Flashes take a less-rebellious approach compared to Akron two years ago.) There’s no way to go but up for Kent State after going 1-11 and winless in MAC play in 2023 during its first season under head coach Kenni Burns. The Flashes kept the score respectable in a 28-6 loss at Arkansas, but their only win was against Central Connecticut State and only one of a the 11 defeats was a one-score game – Kent State’s preseason rankings in the ESPN metrics are 129th (SP+) and 134th (FPI) out of 134 FBS teams.
10. UTEP (November 23 in Knoxville)
The Miners have played in just two bowl games over the past 13 seasons and went just 20-49 over six seasons under head coach Dana Dimel. His replacement is Scotty Walden, who will be familiar with Tennessee and Neyland Stadium having coached Austin Peay there last season, when the Govs gave the Vols some real fits in a Week 2 matchup. UTEP has an open date the week prior to providing the opposition for Tennessee’s home (regular-season) finale and the Vols will be coming off the Georgia game, but the Miners are coming off a three-win season and go into 2024 with preseason rankings of 111th in the FPI and 125th in the SP+, so Tennessee will be an overwhelming favorite.
9. Vanderbilt (November 30 in Nashville)
The Vols have restored order in their in-state rivalry with the Commodores, winning five straight in the series with all of them by at least 18 points and the three victories under Josh Heupel coming by 24, 56 and 24 points. Vanderbilt took a step forward in its second season under Clark Lea in 2022 when it snapped a 26-game SEC losing streak with back-to-back wins against Kentucky and Florida, but the Commodores regressed last season in going from five wins back to two and not winning any conference games. The Commodores always put a lot into this game, but they go into the 2024 season as the lowest-ranked Power 4 team in the preseason SP+ (97th) and face a tough schedule before the Vols roll into town for the regular-season finale.
8. Mississippi State (November 9 in Knoxville)
Josh Heupel will face one of the branches in his budding coaching tree when the Bulldogs visit Neyland Stadium for the first time since 2019. First-year Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby was on Heupel’s staff at UCF as quarterbacks coach (2018-19) and offensive coordinator (2019) before going on to Ole Miss (2020-21) and Oklahoma (2022-23), and he’s getting his first head coaching job in Starkville. The Bulldogs are coming off a 5-7 season and won just one SEC game in 2023, and while Lebby’s scheme should inject needed life into what was a moribund offense a season ago – as we saw with Heupel at Tennessee in 2021 – this looks like a rebuilding job given how Lebby and his staff have attacked the transfer portal with nearly 20 additions, headlined by experienced Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen.
7. Kentucky (November 2 in Knoxville)
Mark Stoops is the winningest football coach in Kentucky history with 73 victories in 11 seasons and he’s turned the Wildcats into a competitive SEC program and delivered 10-win seasons in 2018 and 2021 … but he’s just 2-9 against Tennessee (and 0-3 against Josh Heupel with narrow losses at home in 2021 and 2023 and a humiliating beatdown in 2022). Kentucky is coming off back-to-back 7-6 seasons and will be relying on Georgia quarterback transfer Brock Vandagriff to improve an offense that has to replace All-SEC running back Ray Davis. The Wildcats could end up being pretty good in 2024, but we usually know what happens when they play the Vols, who are 84-26-9 in the all-time series of this border rivalry.
6. Arkansas (October 5 in Fayetteville)
Kentucky likely will be better than Arkansas in 2024, but playing on the road in the SEC is never easy and Tennessee has been much better at Neyland Stadium than away from it – in SEC games under Josh Heupel, the Vols are 9-3 at home (with two of those losses to Georgia) and 5-7 on the road. Arkansas went against college football’s trigger-happy coach-firing grain in sticking with Sam Pittman after a 4-8 season with just one conference win, but the Razorbacks lost five one-score games and have gone all-in on the portal (22 additions) and with the offensive coordinator hire of Bobby Petrino to swing those close games in their favor. The biggest issue for the Hogs is they can’t beat Texas A&M – the Aggies have won all but one Southwest Classic since joining the SEC, and the late-September defeat typically precedes an Arkansas swoon – and that’s the game they have the week before Tennessee, coming off an open date, returns to Fayetteville.
5. NC State (September 7 in Charlotte)
This likely will be a top-25 matchup in Week 2 between two teams coming off nine-win seasons that go into 2024 aiming to be contenders in their respective conferences. The early line from DraftKings had Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite and there will be plenty of uncertainty about both teams at this early stage of the season as the Wolfpack will be relying on a transfer-laden offense and the Vols will be breaking in some new pieces themselves at quarterback and in the secondary. NC State has question marks on the offensive line, though, and Tennessee’s style of offense typically is more challenging for teams that don’t face it regularly, so that should play into the Vols’ favor – and candidly this is usually the kind of game NC State loses as Dave Doeren’s team is 3-6 against top-25 teams over the past three seasons.
4. Florida (October 12 in Knoxville)
Billy Napier went 11-14 in his first two seasons in Gainesville and Florida has almost unthinkably had three straight losing seasons … but this is never an easy game for Tennessee. The Vols have just two wins in the rivalry over the past 19 meetings dating back to 2005, and both of those wins were stressful – Tennessee was favored both times, in 2016 had to rally from a 21-0 first-half deficit and in 2022 held on for dear life while nearly blowing a 17-point lead in the final seven minutes. Tennessee probably will be favored in this one, too – the Vols opened -11 on DraftKings last month – and while Florida’s schedule is brutal, it’s the final six games that are the worst and the Gators could build some early-season confidence with wins in games against Miami, Texas A&M and UCF at home and at Mississippi State.
3. Alabama (October 19 in Knoxville)
There’s no way the Crimson Tide lose the greatest coach in college football history and not skip a beat, right? Alabama tabbed Washington coach Kalen DeBoer coming off a run to the national championship game to replace Nick Saban, but being the guy after *the* guy is tough business and while the Tide will have one of best rosters in the SEC again, the program dealt with a lot of turnover with the transfer portal and you wonder if the aura (and the magic of last year’s Playoff run) will remain through the transition. Oh, and Alabama lost the last time it played at Neyland Stadium, too.
2. Oklahoma (September 21 in Norman)
Conventional thinking would have Alabama here and Oklahoma at 3, but again the Vols have to prove they can go on the road and win a big game like this one will be. The storylines will be aplenty as Josh Heupel returns to his alma mater where he won a national title as a player (and much more recently was fired as an offensive coordinator), the Sooners make their SEC debut and two five-star quarterbacks battle with Nico Iamaleava and Jackson Arnold facing off. Another reason this one is here is Oklahoma’s swoons lately have come later in the season – the Sooners started 9-0 before losing to Baylor and Oklahoma State in 2021, were 5-3 before losing four of five to finish 6-7 (as a preseason top-10 team) in 2022 and were 7-0 before losing to Kansas and Oklahoma State last season – so you’d rather get them later instead of early (particularly this year when the wear and tear of a first run through the SEC adds up, too).
1. Georgia (November 16 in Athens)
There’s no debating this one as Georgia has won seven in a row in the series by margins of 41, 26, 29, 23, 24, 14 and 28 points. The Vols have scored 17, 13 and 10 points in their matchups with the Bulldogs under Josh Heupel as his offense has been unable to deliver in those key 50-50 battles where game-changing plays were there to be had. The record-setting 2022 offense melted down amid the noise, the stage, the rain and the elite talent in Tennessee’s last trip to Sanford Stadium, where Georgia in 2024 will be out for revenge after its three-peat bid faltered with a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
